Bitcoin Consolidates in the Short Term
Bitcoin's 1-hour chart presents a scene of consolidation, with BTC's price movements showing less directionality compared to longer timeframes. Notably, there was a sharp decline to approximately $42,056, possibly indicating a purge of stop-loss orders or a brief panic sell-off following the spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals. However, the market swiftly recovered from this dip.
Downtrend Signals on the 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart paints a clearer picture of a downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The volume on downswings was notably higher, suggesting stronger selling pressure. Resistance has formed near the $45,000 level, which had previously acted as support. The path of least resistance on Wednesday is clearly the downside as the market still has bearish undertones.
Long-Term Downtrend Confirmed on the Daily Chart
The daily chart reinforces the longer-term downtrend observed in the 4-hour analysis. A significant long-term support area is holding around $36,727, a level from which the price had previously bounced back considerably. The current price action was confined within a range between this support and the approximate $45K resistance level. For long-term positions, entry points might be considered near the bottom of this range, with confirmation of support holding.
Mixed Signals from Bitcoin's Oscillators
Bitcoin's oscillators on Jan. 17, 2024, presented a predominantly neutral stance. The relative strength index (RSI) stood at 47, the Stochastic at 17, and the commodity channel index (CCI) at -61, all indicating neutrality. However, the momentum indicator at -1365 and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) level at 83 suggest a bearish undertone to the overall neutral outlook.
Mixed Signals from Moving Averages
Bitcoin's moving averages (MAs) also provide mixed signals. Shorter-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs) for 10, 20, and 30 days indicate negative sentiment, while longer-term averages for 50, 100, and 200 days suggest the bullish sentiment is still strong. This disparity highlights a tension between immediate bearish trends and a potential bullish undercurrent in the longer term.
Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Despite the mixed signals and short-term bearish trends, the long-term outlook for BTC remains positive. The resilience shown at major support levels, coupled with the buying interest reflected in the longer-term moving averages, suggests a potential upward trajectory. Investors with a long-term perspective may find this an opportune moment to consider entry, as the market could be gearing up for a bullish reversal.
Bearish Short-Term Outlook
The bearish indicators dominating the short-term charts point to an ongoing downtrend for bitcoin. The lower highs and lower lows, particularly evident in the 4-hour chart, coupled with stronger selling pressure and bearish oscillator readings, suggest that the market could continue to face downward pressure. Short-term traders might find opportunities in short positions, capitalizing on pullbacks and resistance levels.
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CFTC
bbb.org
wsj.com
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